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3rd April, 25
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going to happen ends up happening in the morning, thus leaving the rest of the day to drift almost perfectly sideways. Thursday was one of those days. Overseas markets dogpiled on Wednesday afternoon's tariff reaction, sending stocks ripping lower and bond yields following. By the time US markets began active trading, most of the gains were in for bonds. MBS, specifically, barely budged from 11:40am through the close. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 219k vs 225k f'cast, 225k prev
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day
Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going to happen ends up happening in the morning, thus leaving the rest of the day to drift almost perfectly sideways. Thursday was one of those days. Overseas markets dogpiled on Wednesday afternoon's tariff reaction, sending stocks ripping lower and bond yields following. By the time US markets began active trading, most of the gains were in for bonds. MBS, specifically, barely budged from 11:40am through the close. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 219k vs 225k f'cast, 225k prev
3rd April, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 5 Months
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower bond yields. Stocks don't always correlate with bond yields, but that has been a common pattern since late February. The correlation between bond yields and mortgage rates, on the other hand, is perpetual and nearly flawless. After all, "yield" is just another word for "rate." Additionally, mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are basically bonds. All that to say: rates have been benefitting from the
Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 5 Months
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower bond yields. Stocks don't always correlate with bond yields, but that has been a common pattern since late February. The correlation between bond yields and mortgage rates, on the other hand, is perpetual and nearly flawless. After all, "yield" is just another word for "rate." Additionally, mortgage rates are based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) which are basically bonds. All that to say: rates have been benefitting from the
3rd April, 25
Hedging, HMDA Dashboard, Verification Tools; Correspondent and Wholesale News: Battle of The Titans
The Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times” can easily be applied to the residential mortgage business in the last month or so. This week and yesterday was no exception, with some brokers benefitting from both Trump’s tariffs (fully expected to slow the economy, driving rates lower) and United Wholesale trying to keep its market share while Rocket Companies is spending about $11 billion to cement its place in real estate transactions and be in touch with a potential borrower from shopping for a home all the way to servicing it. (More below.) Meanwhile, just in time for the MBA
Hedging, HMDA Dashboard, Verification Tools; Correspondent and Wholesale News: Battle of The Titans
The Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times” can easily be applied to the residential mortgage business in the last month or so. This week and yesterday was no exception, with some brokers benefitting from both Trump’s tariffs (fully expected to slow the economy, driving rates lower) and United Wholesale trying to keep its market share while Rocket Companies is spending about $11 billion to cement its place in real estate transactions and be in touch with a potential borrower from shopping for a home all the way to servicing it. (More below.) Meanwhile, just in time for the MBA
3rd April, 25
Global Markets in Flight to Safety After Tariff News
While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact on global trade. That "bracing" is being traded in the form of a flight to safety (sell stocks, buy bonds) that began yesterday and continued overnight. 10yr yields were already close to 4.0% before this morning's weaker ISM Services data, and have been inching closer since then. That said, the additional "inching" isn't really in response to ISM. Almost all of today's trading looks like an afterthought compared to yesterday's initial
Global Markets in Flight to Safety After Tariff News
While plenty of uncertainty remains over the finer points of Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement, markets have heard enough to brace for impact on global trade. That "bracing" is being traded in the form of a flight to safety (sell stocks, buy bonds) that began yesterday and continued overnight. 10yr yields were already close to 4.0% before this morning's weaker ISM Services data, and have been inching closer since then. That said, the additional "inching" isn't really in response to ISM. Almost all of today's trading looks like an afterthought compared to yesterday's initial
2nd April, 25
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directions this afternoon. After the dust settled, the net effect was "buy bonds, sell stocks." Notably, that was a sharp departure from the initial net effect during the early part of Trump's speech. The ultimately friendly result was enough to get Treasuries back into positive territory and for MBS to get sorta close. In the bigger picture, the volatility didn't really matter as both stocks and bonds remained in the same old ranges. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 155k vs 105k f'
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directions this afternoon. After the dust settled, the net effect was "buy bonds, sell stocks." Notably, that was a sharp departure from the initial net effect during the early part of Trump's speech. The ultimately friendly result was enough to get Treasuries back into positive territory and for MBS to get sorta close. In the bigger picture, the volatility didn't really matter as both stocks and bonds remained in the same old ranges. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 155k vs 105k f'
2nd April, 25
Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when the long awaited tariff announcement speech took place. There was always a decent chance of a whipsaw in response and a whipsaw is what we got. Fortunately, the net effect for the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates) was positive. In other words, interest rates received good news while stocks received bad news. The catch is that bond had been having a somewhat downbeat day until then. As such, the favorable reaction to
Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when the long awaited tariff announcement speech took place. There was always a decent chance of a whipsaw in response and a whipsaw is what we got. Fortunately, the net effect for the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates) was positive. In other words, interest rates received good news while stocks received bad news. The catch is that bond had been having a somewhat downbeat day until then. As such, the favorable reaction to
2nd April, 25
Choppy, But Sideways Morning Leaves Focus on Afternoon Headlines
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out a bit higher than expected, bonds opted to maintain the rally trend that had been intact since the start of European trading overnight. That resulted in moderate gains at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open, but things changed from there. Stocks bounced higher and brough bond yields along for the ride. The net effect is modest weakness, and no major change to the sideways grind in the bigger picture. Things could change for
Choppy, But Sideways Morning Leaves Focus on Afternoon Headlines
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out a bit higher than expected, bonds opted to maintain the rally trend that had been intact since the start of European trading overnight. That resulted in moderate gains at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open, but things changed from there. Stocks bounced higher and brough bond yields along for the ride. The net effect is modest weakness, and no major change to the sideways grind in the bigger picture. Things could change for
2nd April, 25
HELOC, Credit Union, Non-QM Products; Wholesale, Reverse, Vendor Partnership News
Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you call anyone 65 “elderly” especially when places like The Villages exist. That aside, want to help your older clients? Pass along this list of discounts, for various ages, on items like airline tickets, hotels, restaurants, or car rental companies. And a way for companies to increase their revenue is right in front of their noses. Homeowners 62 and older saw their housing wealth decrease by one percent in Q4 2024 to $13.95
HELOC, Credit Union, Non-QM Products; Wholesale, Reverse, Vendor Partnership News
Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you call anyone 65 “elderly” especially when places like The Villages exist. That aside, want to help your older clients? Pass along this list of discounts, for various ages, on items like airline tickets, hotels, restaurants, or car rental companies. And a way for companies to increase their revenue is right in front of their noses. Homeowners 62 and older saw their housing wealth decrease by one percent in Q4 2024 to $13.95
1st April, 25
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand. The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day's range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There's more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand. The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day's range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There's more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing
1st April, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly a Month
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there's not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it didn't take a major move to facilitate today's little victory, but it is notable that we've seen 3 victories in a row now. In other words, rates have fallen by a modest amount on each of the past 3 business days. To reemphasize the narrowness of the range, we were at the highest levels 4 days ago. Today's victory wasn't necessarily a given.&
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly a Month
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there's not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it didn't take a major move to facilitate today's little victory, but it is notable that we've seen 3 victories in a row now. In other words, rates have fallen by a modest amount on each of the past 3 business days. To reemphasize the narrowness of the range, we were at the highest levels 4 days ago. Today's victory wasn't necessarily a given.&
