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3rd July, 25
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was even in line with expectations. After it came out stronger than expected (especially in terms of the unemployment rate at 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast), it was off to the races for bond sellers. The short end of the yield curve has the most in common with Fed rate expectations, so it took the most damage, but MBS fared far better. Perhaps that has something to do with the government not issuing MBS to fund the just-passed spending bill or perhaps it is a nod to next week's uncertain
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform
Big Market Reaction but Mortgages Outperform Today's jobs report would have been bad for rates if it was even in line with expectations. After it came out stronger than expected (especially in terms of the unemployment rate at 4.1 vs 4.3 f'cast), it was off to the races for bond sellers. The short end of the yield curve has the most in common with Fed rate expectations, so it took the most damage, but MBS fared far better. Perhaps that has something to do with the government not issuing MBS to fund the just-passed spending bill or perhaps it is a nod to next week's uncertain
3rd July, 25
Mortgage Rates Rose Less Than Expected After Employment Data
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatility in the rate market. Today's was particularly important because a perpetually decent labor market is the main justification for the Fed to wait and see if tariffs have an impact on inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. In other words, if unemployment were rising, the Fed would be cutting rates. Not only did today's report show no rise in unemployment, there was actually a
Mortgage Rates Rose Less Than Expected After Employment Data
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report. This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatility in the rate market. Today's was particularly important because a perpetually decent labor market is the main justification for the Fed to wait and see if tariffs have an impact on inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. In other words, if unemployment were rising, the Fed would be cutting rates. Not only did today's report show no rise in unemployment, there was actually a
3rd July, 25
HELOC Products; Bank Builder JV; Customer Service and Compliance; Employment Data
Tomorrow is the 4th of July, the only time of the year Americans say the day and month in the correct order. We find ourselves in the traditional “dog days of summer” which refer to the hottest and most uncomfortable days typically occurring from July 3 to August 11 in the Northern Hemisphere. Did someone say “dog”? Thank you to David I. who sent along a story about how inflation shows up in the price of hot dogs at the yearly Coney Island display of gluttony. While President Trump continues to publicly berate Fed Chair Powell (but can’t fire him), it is important for lenders to
HELOC Products; Bank Builder JV; Customer Service and Compliance; Employment Data
Tomorrow is the 4th of July, the only time of the year Americans say the day and month in the correct order. We find ourselves in the traditional “dog days of summer” which refer to the hottest and most uncomfortable days typically occurring from July 3 to August 11 in the Northern Hemisphere. Did someone say “dog”? Thank you to David I. who sent along a story about how inflation shows up in the price of hot dogs at the yearly Coney Island display of gluttony. While President Trump continues to publicly berate Fed Chair Powell (but can’t fire him), it is important for lenders to
3rd July, 25
Refis Pick Up Steam as Rate Relief Returns
Mortgage application activity moved higher last week as rates declined to the lowest levels since April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 27. Results were not adjusted for holidays this time around, but the previous week had included a Juneteenth adjustment. “Mortgage rates were lower across all loan types last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to its lowest level since April at 6.79 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist
Refis Pick Up Steam as Rate Relief Returns
Mortgage application activity moved higher last week as rates declined to the lowest levels since April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 27. Results were not adjusted for holidays this time around, but the previous week had included a Juneteenth adjustment. “Mortgage rates were lower across all loan types last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to its lowest level since April at 6.79 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist
3rd July, 25
Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as expected. We assumed that even an on-target result was worth a bit of bond market weakness given the apparent "lead-off" induced by preceding data. The moderately stronger result (147k vs 110k f'cast) was more than enough to add some emphasis to the sell-off. Add the 0.2% drop in unemployment and it was game over. Are there some "yeah buts" in the data? Sure, but none so striking as to
Jobs Report Comes in Stronger. Bonds React Logically
Apart from the fact that this morning's jobs report contrasted starkly from the slew of anecdotal evidence suggesting a weaker labor market in June, the morning has proceeded almost exactly as expected. We assumed that even an on-target result was worth a bit of bond market weakness given the apparent "lead-off" induced by preceding data. The moderately stronger result (147k vs 110k f'cast) was more than enough to add some emphasis to the sell-off. Add the 0.2% drop in unemployment and it was game over. Are there some "yeah buts" in the data? Sure, but none so striking as to
2nd July, 25
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month's 139k. The bond market has recently been trading as if it expects to see an even lower number--a fact that's not too surprising given the preponderance of other data that suggests a weaker labor market in June. The latest in that list was today's ADP employment report which completely whiffed (-35k vs 95k f'cast). Bonds initially rallied on that news, but didn't maintain the gains, possibly due
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP
Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month's 139k. The bond market has recently been trading as if it expects to see an even lower number--a fact that's not too surprising given the preponderance of other data that suggests a weaker labor market in June. The latest in that list was today's ADP employment report which completely whiffed (-35k vs 95k f'cast). Bonds initially rallied on that news, but didn't maintain the gains, possibly due
2nd July, 25
Rates Finally Rise Ahead of Jobs Report
Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally came to an end today with the average lender moving up 0.06% for a top tier 30yr fixed quote. While that's a moderately big jump for a single day, if we remove the past 4 days from the equation, today's rates would still be the lowest since early April. In other words, we're still in solid shape in the bigger picture. Additionally, we've increasingly expected rates to bounce as the recent winning streak persisted. As of yesterday, it was
Rates Finally Rise Ahead of Jobs Report
Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks. That winning streak finally came to an end today with the average lender moving up 0.06% for a top tier 30yr fixed quote. While that's a moderately big jump for a single day, if we remove the past 4 days from the equation, today's rates would still be the lowest since early April. In other words, we're still in solid shape in the bigger picture. Additionally, we've increasingly expected rates to bounce as the recent winning streak persisted. As of yesterday, it was
2nd July, 25
Processing, Lead-Gen Tools; HELOCs, 2nds, Non-Agency Products; Maryland's DSCR Controversy
“Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You can bet anyone flying some place is watching the flight delays due to staffing and weather. You can bet that people are watching home price appreciation, especially in terms of home equity, HELOCs, and cash-out refinancing. Expect home price appreciation to slow (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing) due to increased supply, steady interest rates, and weaker economic conditions. (No one wants to go back to the 20 percent gains we saw in
Processing, Lead-Gen Tools; HELOCs, 2nds, Non-Agency Products; Maryland's DSCR Controversy
“Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You can bet anyone flying some place is watching the flight delays due to staffing and weather. You can bet that people are watching home price appreciation, especially in terms of home equity, HELOCs, and cash-out refinancing. Expect home price appreciation to slow (which isn’t necessarily a bad thing) due to increased supply, steady interest rates, and weaker economic conditions. (No one wants to go back to the 20 percent gains we saw in
2nd July, 25
Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples of a "miss" of this size prompting a swift rally on the bond market. Although that looked like it could have been in the works in the first few minutes, bonds have since reversed course and moved back in line with weaker overnight levels. What's up with that? To some extent, global bond markets are experiencing some pressure from a massive rout in UK debt over fiscal spending fears. Then there's the simple fact that ADP has such
Bonds Think About Rallying on ADP Data, But Already Getting Cold Feet
ADP employment was this morning's key economic report and it came out sharply weaker than expected (-33k vs 95k f'cast). There are many past examples of a "miss" of this size prompting a swift rally on the bond market. Although that looked like it could have been in the works in the first few minutes, bonds have since reversed course and moved back in line with weaker overnight levels. What's up with that? To some extent, global bond markets are experiencing some pressure from a massive rout in UK debt over fiscal spending fears. Then there's the simple fact that ADP has such
1st July, 25
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data. JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday's highs--perhaps with some help from the Senate's passage of the spending bill, but at that point, traders bought the dip in bond prices and pushed back into the day's range. It wasn't enough to get back to positive territory, but it made the day less of an obvious turning point in the bigger-picture. Perhaps a better way to say it would be
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data
Traders Buy The Dip After AM Data After a bit of overnight strength and an early morning pull-back, bonds were right in line with yesterday afternoon's levels ahead of the 10am data. JOLTS (job openings) pushed yields back to yesterday's highs--perhaps with some help from the Senate's passage of the spending bill, but at that point, traders bought the dip in bond prices and pushed back into the day's range. It wasn't enough to get back to positive territory, but it made the day less of an obvious turning point in the bigger-picture. Perhaps a better way to say it would be
