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7th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Rise Gently, But Still Well Below This Week's Highs
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data on that same morning. Rates moved back down yesterday after separate econ data told a different story. Now on Friday, it's a mixed bag. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker to start the day, and that meant rates started out modestly higher. But the last economic data of the week showed lower-than-expected consumer sentiment. Bonds improved as a result, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of adjusting their
Mortgage Rates Rise Gently, But Still Well Below This Week's Highs
Wednesday's mortgage rates were the highest in roughly a month and very close to the highest levels in 2 months. This followed stronger economic data on that same morning. Rates moved back down yesterday after separate econ data told a different story. Now on Friday, it's a mixed bag. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker to start the day, and that meant rates started out modestly higher. But the last economic data of the week showed lower-than-expected consumer sentiment. Bonds improved as a result, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of adjusting their
7th November, 25
Non-QM, Lock Service, Valuation M&A, Borrower Satisfaction, ARM Hedging Tools; Robinhood Enters Mortgage
How was the Louve in Paris robbed? The password for the cameras was… ready? Louve. (I’m sure that the Smithsonian, MOMA, and Vatican IT staffs are busy changing theirs. (I have my passwords in a notebook… no one can read my scrawl.) Let’s hope that the Federal Aviation Administration has better security, and its website says, “The FAA manages the world’s safest and most complex aviation system. On an average day, we serve more than 45,000 flights and 2.9 million airline passengers across more than 29 million square miles of airspace.” Even with the Trump Administration lopping 10
Non-QM, Lock Service, Valuation M&A, Borrower Satisfaction, ARM Hedging Tools; Robinhood Enters Mortgage
How was the Louve in Paris robbed? The password for the cameras was… ready? Louve. (I’m sure that the Smithsonian, MOMA, and Vatican IT staffs are busy changing theirs. (I have my passwords in a notebook… no one can read my scrawl.) Let’s hope that the Federal Aviation Administration has better security, and its website says, “The FAA manages the world’s safest and most complex aviation system. On an average day, we serve more than 45,000 flights and 2.9 million airline passengers across more than 29 million square miles of airspace.” Even with the Trump Administration lopping 10
7th November, 25
Econ Data Keeping Bonds Flat
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as stock losses helped arrest the selling pressure. Then at 10am ET, weaker Consumer Sentiment data (with a record low in current conditions) helped completely erase the selling
Econ Data Keeping Bonds Flat
Although bonds began the day in roughly unchanged territory, they began losing ground shortly thereafter. Things changed at the 9:30am NYSE open as stock losses helped arrest the selling pressure. Then at 10am ET, weaker Consumer Sentiment data (with a record low in current conditions) helped completely erase the selling
6th November, 25
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing?
Have Bonds Found Their Post-Fed Footing? Looked at one way, bonds have been in a moderate selling trend since Fed day. Viewed through another lens, Fed day caused an isolated lurch toward higher yields and then we were generally sideways until yesterday's econ data caused another lurch higher. The common thread in each scenario is that bonds had been unable to find a reason to rally in any meaningful way. Amid such scenarios, we wait for such rallies to restore balance to the near-term outlook. Via weak results in private label econ data, a sharp morning selling spree in stocks (and
6th November, 25
Nice Little Recovery For Mortgage Rates
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product of 2 specific days: the October 29th Fed announcement and yesterday's duo of economic reports that suggested less cause for concern over the labor market and strength of the services sector. Now today, we have different economic data telling a different story. Were it not for the government shutdown, the market may have never placed nearly as much emphasis on today's data. In fact, today is the first time that many market participants have
Nice Little Recovery For Mortgage Rates
As of yesterday afternoon, mortgage rates were right in line with the highest levels in more than a month. The upward momentum was largely a product of 2 specific days: the October 29th Fed announcement and yesterday's duo of economic reports that suggested less cause for concern over the labor market and strength of the services sector. Now today, we have different economic data telling a different story. Were it not for the government shutdown, the market may have never placed nearly as much emphasis on today's data. In fact, today is the first time that many market participants have
6th November, 25
AI Processing, Borrower Experience and Targeting Tools; Labor Market is Being Pummeled
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety of reasons. 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents are working without pay. For anyone looking for a job through the Job Board, here’s a pro tip for a question in your next interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Answer: “Celebrating the 5th anniversary in your lunchroom of you asking me that question.” Job news, good and bad, is in the forefront of economic and residential
AI Processing, Borrower Experience and Targeting Tools; Labor Market is Being Pummeled
Frequent conference goers or traveling salespeople are obviously concerned about the Trump Administration cutting 10 percent of flights for a variety of reasons. 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents are working without pay. For anyone looking for a job through the Job Board, here’s a pro tip for a question in your next interview: “Where do you see yourself in five years?” Answer: “Celebrating the 5th anniversary in your lunchroom of you asking me that question.” Job news, good and bad, is in the forefront of economic and residential
6th November, 25
New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it's own version of nonfarm payrolls. While it's far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio's data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there's no great way to justify this morning's rally in bonds without the Revelio release at 8:30am ET, which showed a decline
New Data Sources Bring New Inspiration
The shutdown has not only placed more emphasis on the alternative data that was already in the rotation, but also fueled interest in new sources. One that you'll likely hear more about in the coming months is Revelio Labs, a company using data aggregation and modeling to synthesize it's own version of nonfarm payrolls. While it's far from an exact match, the trends are similar, and Revelio's data is less volatile (much like ADP always has been). All that to say, there's no great way to justify this morning's rally in bonds without the Revelio release at 8:30am ET, which showed a decline
5th November, 25
Mortgage Rates Near 2-Month Highs After Today's Econ Data
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than
Mortgage Rates Near 2-Month Highs After Today's Econ Data
A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than
5th November, 25
Broker, Non-QM, Compliance, Workflow, AI, Tax Tools; ADP Jobs Data and Rates
“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lender interaction is beneficial, sometimes not. The ongoing federal government shutdown not only has impacted citizen’s psychology, but has hit FHA and VA loan processing via reduced staff, creating endorsement delays of days to weeks. USDA loans remain completely halted for new guarantees, although it appears that IRS transcript processing, and other verification services needed for all loan types, is functioning. The NAR (National
Broker, Non-QM, Compliance, Workflow, AI, Tax Tools; ADP Jobs Data and Rates
“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lender interaction is beneficial, sometimes not. The ongoing federal government shutdown not only has impacted citizen’s psychology, but has hit FHA and VA loan processing via reduced staff, creating endorsement delays of days to weeks. USDA loans remain completely halted for new guarantees, although it appears that IRS transcript processing, and other verification services needed for all loan types, is functioning. The NAR (National
5th November, 25
2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement. In today's case, because of the government shutdown, it means we're getting a higher proportion of market-moving data inside a 2 hour window than any other day (or even entire week) could possibly offer. Unfortunately, neither report was bond-friendly. Thankfully though, ADP wasn't exceptionally unfriendly. Additionally,&
2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds
Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data. The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement. In today's case, because of the government shutdown, it means we're getting a higher proportion of market-moving data inside a 2 hour window than any other day (or even entire week) could possibly offer. Unfortunately, neither report was bond-friendly. Thankfully though, ADP wasn't exceptionally unfriendly. Additionally,&
