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2nd April, 25
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directions this afternoon. After the dust settled, the net effect was "buy bonds, sell stocks." Notably, that was a sharp departure from the initial net effect during the early part of Trump's speech. The ultimately friendly result was enough to get Treasuries back into positive territory and for MBS to get sorta close. In the bigger picture, the volatility didn't really matter as both stocks and bonds remained in the same old ranges. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 155k vs 105k f'
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directions this afternoon. After the dust settled, the net effect was "buy bonds, sell stocks." Notably, that was a sharp departure from the initial net effect during the early part of Trump's speech. The ultimately friendly result was enough to get Treasuries back into positive territory and for MBS to get sorta close. In the bigger picture, the volatility didn't really matter as both stocks and bonds remained in the same old ranges. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 155k vs 105k f'
2nd April, 25
Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when the long awaited tariff announcement speech took place. There was always a decent chance of a whipsaw in response and a whipsaw is what we got. Fortunately, the net effect for the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates) was positive. In other words, interest rates received good news while stocks received bad news. The catch is that bond had been having a somewhat downbeat day until then. As such, the favorable reaction to
Mortgage Rates Edge Slightly Higher, But Tomorrow is Anyone's Guess
Mortgage rates didn't move much today, which is pretty crazy considering the volatility present in financial markets in the afternoon. That's when the long awaited tariff announcement speech took place. There was always a decent chance of a whipsaw in response and a whipsaw is what we got. Fortunately, the net effect for the bond market (bonds dictate interest rates) was positive. In other words, interest rates received good news while stocks received bad news. The catch is that bond had been having a somewhat downbeat day until then. As such, the favorable reaction to
2nd April, 25
Choppy, But Sideways Morning Leaves Focus on Afternoon Headlines
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out a bit higher than expected, bonds opted to maintain the rally trend that had been intact since the start of European trading overnight. That resulted in moderate gains at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open, but things changed from there. Stocks bounced higher and brough bond yields along for the ride. The net effect is modest weakness, and no major change to the sideways grind in the bigger picture. Things could change for
Choppy, But Sideways Morning Leaves Focus on Afternoon Headlines
This morning's ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned. Despite coming out a bit higher than expected, bonds opted to maintain the rally trend that had been intact since the start of European trading overnight. That resulted in moderate gains at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open, but things changed from there. Stocks bounced higher and brough bond yields along for the ride. The net effect is modest weakness, and no major change to the sideways grind in the bigger picture. Things could change for
2nd April, 25
HELOC, Credit Union, Non-QM Products; Wholesale, Reverse, Vendor Partnership News
Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you call anyone 65 “elderly” especially when places like The Villages exist. That aside, want to help your older clients? Pass along this list of discounts, for various ages, on items like airline tickets, hotels, restaurants, or car rental companies. And a way for companies to increase their revenue is right in front of their noses. Homeowners 62 and older saw their housing wealth decrease by one percent in Q4 2024 to $13.95
HELOC, Credit Union, Non-QM Products; Wholesale, Reverse, Vendor Partnership News
Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you call anyone 65 “elderly” especially when places like The Villages exist. That aside, want to help your older clients? Pass along this list of discounts, for various ages, on items like airline tickets, hotels, restaurants, or car rental companies. And a way for companies to increase their revenue is right in front of their noses. Homeowners 62 and older saw their housing wealth decrease by one percent in Q4 2024 to $13.95
1st April, 25
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand. The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day's range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There's more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck
Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck This morning's economic data wasn't immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day's gains were in place beforehand. The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day's range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There's more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon. Econ Data / Events ISM Manufacturing
1st April, 25
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly a Month
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there's not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it didn't take a major move to facilitate today's little victory, but it is notable that we've seen 3 victories in a row now. In other words, rates have fallen by a modest amount on each of the past 3 business days. To reemphasize the narrowness of the range, we were at the highest levels 4 days ago. Today's victory wasn't necessarily a given.&
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly a Month
While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it's also true that today's rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there's not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it didn't take a major move to facilitate today's little victory, but it is notable that we've seen 3 victories in a row now. In other words, rates have fallen by a modest amount on each of the past 3 business days. To reemphasize the narrowness of the range, we were at the highest levels 4 days ago. Today's victory wasn't necessarily a given.&
1st April, 25
Angel Oak/Brookfield Deal and More Mergers; Audit, POS, Non-QM, Automation Tools ; Webcasts and Training This Week
This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay income taxes. “Right now, leaders in Congress are discussing how to fund an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Some lawmakers are considering a new tax on all credit unions as part of the solution. Credit unions have been tax-exempt since the 1934 Federal Credit Union Act, and will tell you that, “This exemption allows us to return value directly to you through better rates, lower fees, and member-focused service, not to
Angel Oak/Brookfield Deal and More Mergers; Audit, POS, Non-QM, Automation Tools ; Webcasts and Training This Week
This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay income taxes. “Right now, leaders in Congress are discussing how to fund an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Some lawmakers are considering a new tax on all credit unions as part of the solution. Credit unions have been tax-exempt since the 1934 Federal Credit Union Act, and will tell you that, “This exemption allows us to return value directly to you through better rates, lower fees, and member-focused service, not to
1st April, 25
Bonds Look Past Higher Manufacturing Prices
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. Today is not one of them, even though prices surged to the 2nd consecutive multi-year high. This likely would not be the case if it was the only data in play, but thankfully for bonds, the rest of the 10am data was friendly. Even in the same report, the employment metric fell several points and is close to longer-term lows. In addition, job openings and job quits both moved lower (both good for bonds).
Bonds Look Past Higher Manufacturing Prices
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher. Today is not one of them, even though prices surged to the 2nd consecutive multi-year high. This likely would not be the case if it was the only data in play, but thankfully for bonds, the rest of the 10am data was friendly. Even in the same report, the employment metric fell several points and is close to longer-term lows. In addition, job openings and job quits both moved lower (both good for bonds).
31st March, 25
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors reacted to weekend tariff news with a risk-off move. Stocks bounced shortly after the NYSE open and bond yields were pulled higher in concert. That prevailing correlation broke down around 3pm due to month/quarter end bond buying (3pm is the official close for bonds, even though trading continues until 5pm). There was no major reaction to econ data or Fed speakers today. The data becomes more relevant in the coming days. Econ Data / Events Chicago PMI 47.6 vs 45
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors reacted to weekend tariff news with a risk-off move. Stocks bounced shortly after the NYSE open and bond yields were pulled higher in concert. That prevailing correlation broke down around 3pm due to month/quarter end bond buying (3pm is the official close for bonds, even though trading continues until 5pm). There was no major reaction to econ data or Fed speakers today. The data becomes more relevant in the coming days. Econ Data / Events Chicago PMI 47.6 vs 45
31st March, 25
Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week. We haven't been outside of that range since then. Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range. While it's not always apparent by the time mortgage lenders set rates for the day, the underlying bond market continues experiencing volatility behind the scenes. Recently, that volatility often aligns
Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week. We haven't been outside of that range since then. Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range. While it's not always apparent by the time mortgage lenders set rates for the day, the underlying bond market continues experiencing volatility behind the scenes. Recently, that volatility often aligns
